Path Dependence and the Persistence of Lake Victoria’s Kenyan Port Towns

Abstract

Debate about path dependence on emergence and persistence of urban centres has attracted parallel views. The emergence of urbanisation equilibrium in the lake region can be explained by locational fundamentals (their proximity to Lake Victoria) and increasing returns. However, the persistence of these urban centres is due to path dependence. The decline of lake transport in the post-colonial East Africa resulted to the collapse of many port activities across the Lake. However, a number of Kenyan port towns including Karungu (Sori), Kisumu, Homa Bay and Kendu Bay have persisted and even expanded despite this economic shift. Employing path dependence theory, this paper explains their resilience, arguing that both colonial and post- colonial administrative frameworks and socio-economic networks created self-reinforcing mechanisms that sustained these towns long after their original economic importance faded. Drawing on field research, archival sources and secondary literature, the study demonstrates how initial conditions, institutional lock-ins, and adaptive strategies contributed to the continued expansion of these urban centers. The findings show the enduring influence of historical pathways on contemporary urban development and suggest policy implications for leveraging these historical trajectories for sustainable growth.